Question 1

What does the edge % on a pick actually mean?

Accepted Answer

Edge % is how much more the soft book is paying you than the fair (no-vig) price implies you should get. If fair probability is 52% and the book's price only implies 48%, you hold roughly a 4% edge — meaning that for every $100 staked you expect to win about $4 on average over a large sample. It is an expectation, not a prediction of this single game.

Question 2

How big does an edge need to be before I bet it?

Accepted Answer

Anything under about 2% is inside the noise of de-vig error and stale prices, so EdgeDesk's default floor is 2.5%. Edges above 6-7% on a liquid market usually mean something you can't see — a late injury, a lineup scratch, or a limit that vanished. Treat the 2.5%-6% band as the sweet spot and inspect the outliers before firing.

Question 3

How do I read CLV on a logged bet?

Accepted Answer

CLV compares the price you took to the closing price. Positive CLV means you got better odds than the market settled at, negative means worse. It's reported in percentage terms, so +3.1% CLV means your number was 3.1% better than the close. Over a few hundred bets your average CLV predicts your profitability far more reliably than your win rate does.

Question 4

My bet lost but shows positive CLV — was it a bad bet?

Accepted Answer

No. A single result tells you almost nothing; variance dominates small samples. Positive CLV means you bought the outcome cheaper than the sharpest market ended up pricing it, which is the repeatable part of the process. Judge individual bets by CLV and judge your bankroll by the aggregate.

Question 5

What is line movement telling me?

Accepted Answer

The move indicator on each card shows how the price has drifted since the pick opened. Movement toward your number (the price getting shorter after you'd have bet it) confirms the market agreeing with you — that's where CLV comes from. Movement away from you means the market disagreed, and the edge is likely gone.

Question 6

Should I still take a pick if the line has already moved against me?

Accepted Answer

Recheck the edge first — the card recalculates against the current sharp quote on every sync. If the remaining edge is still above your minimum, the bet is fine at the worse price. If the move pushed it under your floor, skip it: chasing a number that already ran is how positive-CLV bettors turn into negative-CLV bettors.

Question 7

Why does the same pick's edge change between syncs?

Accepted Answer

Both sides of the calculation move. The sharp book updates its two-sided quote, which changes the fair probability, and the soft book updates its price, which changes what you'd be paid. Open the 'show the math' panel on any card to see the exact inputs, the de-vig step and what changed on the last sync.

Question 8

How much should I stake on each alert?

Accepted Answer

Each card sizes the bet for you using fractional Kelly — quarter-Kelly by default — capped at your maximum stake percentage of bankroll. Bigger edges get bigger stakes, but the cap keeps any one bet from being able to hurt you. You can change the Kelly fraction, cap and minimum edge under Settings.

Bet the number, not the narrative.

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